BIS paper finds major gap in Bitcoin onchain transfer estimates
A BIS study found that Bitcoin onchain transfer-value estimates can differ by up to six times depending on how transactions are counted. The gap comes from Bitcoin’s structure, especially change outputs and transfers back to the sender, which can be counted as activity even when no value is moved to another party. The same measurement problem affects market cap, which at times was up to four times higher than realized capitalization. Based on 100 billion blockchain records across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron, the study concludes that onchain metrics are noisy approximations, not direct measures of economic activity. Ethereum adds complexity because many smart contracts cannot be clearly classified. Stablecoins also behave differently across chains: USDT on Ethereum is more tied to DeFi, while on Tron it is more associated with payments and store-of-value use. This means aggregating across blockchains can blur distinct economic behaviors. Some providers, such as Visa, already publish adjusted stablecoin volumes that remove bots, internal exchange flows, and other distortions.
