Bitcoin $250,000, Ether $10,000 By Year-End? Arthur Hayes Thinks So

Summary

Arthur Hayes predicts a significant credit boom in the U.S. driven by wartime industrial policy, potentially leading to a major bubble in Bitcoin and crypto markets. He highlights a Pentagon deal with MP Materials, positioning it as a model for expanding the money supply without Congressional approval. This credit expansion is expected to result in inflation and guaranteed profits for banks and industries. Hayes draws parallels to China's property boom, suggesting that digital assets will serve as a pressure valve for economic growth in the U.S. He notes potential policy shifts, including retirement plans allocating to crypto and proposals to eliminate capital gains tax on digital assets, which could attract younger investors. Hayes anticipates a self-reinforcing cycle where credit expansion boosts crypto values, leading to increased demand for stablecoins and U.S. Treasury bills. He forecasts Bitcoin reaching $250,000 and Ether $10,000 by December 2025, while stating these views are personal and not investment advice.