Bitcoin bottom countdown nears 50 days after BTC supply in loss passed 50%
Summary
Bitcoin may be nearing a bear-market bottom based on onchain metrics. More than 50% of BTC supply is currently held at a loss, a level that has historically appeared late in bear markets. In past cycles, once supply in loss crossed 50%, the bottom followed within 13 to 101 days. This time, the threshold was hit on June 5, and 42 days have passed, making the current window unusually long but still within historical bounds. CryptoQuant data shows supply in loss near 46% as of July 17. Another cost-basis indicator, realized cap variance, is in the bottom 6% of its history and has a Z-score of -2.35, a range associated with late-stage bear markets. Similar readings in prior cycles preceded strong 12-month returns, often above 75%.
