Bitcoin Bottom Not Here Yet? This Indicator Remains In Transition Phase
Bitcoin’s on-chain PnL Index is in a transition phase that has often preceded major bottoms, but not instantly. Its 365-day moving average has been trending down since Q4 2025, reflecting a bearish shift, yet it remains above the red zone that has typically marked true undervaluation and bear-market lows. This cycle also looks different from prior ones because the PnL Index formed two similar peaks around the Q1 and Q4 2025 tops, rather than one major peak. Weak price action has also pushed short-term holder whales—wallets with at least 1,000 BTC bought within the last 155 days—into severe loss. Their unrealized P&L is about -$16.4 billion, the deepest stress level this cycle. Bitcoin is trading near $61,700, down more than 6% over the past week.
