Bitcoin Could Fall To $40,000 If Saylor’s Bid Stalls, Ran Neuner Warns
Ran Neuner warns that Bitcoin’s current chart structure resembles the pre-capitulation pattern of 2022, characterized by a bear flag that failed to resolve higher and led to a significant drop. He notes that, like in 2022, Bitcoin is retesting the 200-day moving average and could fall to the $40,000–$50,000 range if the pattern repeats. The crucial difference this time, according to Neuner, is Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, acting as the largest marginal buyer via capital raised through STRC, a preferred stock instrument. Neuner expresses concern that the window for raising funds via STRC is narrowing, as evidenced by fewer days when STRC trades at $100 near its ex-dividend date, limiting Strategy’s ability to buy more Bitcoin. He suggests that if STRC continues to spend less time at $100, the market may begin to discount the effect of Strategy as a major buyer. Neuner also highlights broader macro risks, including rising Treasury yields, persistent inflation, higher oil prices, and potential liquidity drains from large IPOs, suggesting that these factors could further pressure Bitcoin’s price. At the time of his comments, Bitcoin traded at $77,033.
