Bitcoin traders still expect new all-time highs in 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 5.5% from May 27 to May 30, retesting the $104,000 level. Despite this decline, professional traders remain optimistic, as indicated by BTC derivatives data and stablecoin demand in China. Bitcoin's price movement aligns closely with US government bonds, suggesting macroeconomic factors are influencing its weakness following a peak of $111,970 on May 22. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped from 4.60% to 4.42%, indicating increased buying activity in safer assets. The Bitcoin futures premium is stable at 7%, within a neutral range, and there is no evidence of excessive leverage contributing to the recent price high. Aggregate open interest in BTC futures remains robust, with liquidations totaling $323 million, less than 0.5% of total open interest. The Bitcoin options market shows a neutral delta skew, indicating balanced expectations for price movements. Tether (USDT) trades at a minor discount in China, reflecting a rotation into stablecoins rather than a mass exit from crypto. Overall, the correction does not signal reduced trader interest despite recent ETF outflows.
