Bitcoin’s $60,000 support is still a bet on the dollar breaking
Bitcoin is in a deep on-chain discount phase, with over 95% of short-term holders underwater and realized losses nearing capitulation levels. Glassnode’s AVIV z-score sits around -1.06 and short-term holder MVRV near 0.83, leaving recent buyers roughly 17%–19% down on average. Only 3.3% of short-term holders are in profit, while STH-SOPR is close to the severe-capitulation threshold. The market has been deleveraged as BTC fell about 7.5% to roughly $61,700, clearing long liquidations. But recovery has not yet been supported by strong spot demand: the Coinbase Premium stayed negative, and corporate treasury buying has slowed sharply. Macro conditions remain the main headwind. DXY is above 100 and the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.53%, a setup that historically दब दब दब compresses speculative risk appetite. A durable rebound likely needs DXY below 99 or the 10-year near 4.2%. The June CPI print and June 16–17 FOMC meeting are the key near-term catalysts.
