Bitcoin’s $64K rebound has three days before its next big challenge threatens to derail momentum
Bitcoin traded near $64,100, up about 2.6% over the past week, but trading activity and ETF demand suggest the rebound is not yet firmly established. The next major catalyst is June US CPI, due July 14, which could shift expectations for Fed policy and risk assets. FedWatch pricing puts a July rate hold at 64.6% and a 35.4% chance of a hike, with markets still assigning some odds to further tightening by September. A hotter-than-expected CPI could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, raise hike odds, and pressure Bitcoin if ETF inflows fade. A cooler print would support easing bets, lower yields, and could extend the rally through stronger ETF demand. Open interest is high but leverage looks orderly, so the main question is whether buyers keep absorbing supply after the inflation report or whether the move is mostly short covering.
