Bitcoin’s ‘calm top’ challenges most market bottom estimates: Research
Galaxy Digital says Bitcoin’s next cycle low may form above prior bear-market bottoms because the latest peak was unusually muted and speculative excess was limited. Historical cycle timing still looks intact, but peak-to-trough drawdowns have steadily narrowed, and only a few major top and bottom signals have fired so far. October 2025’s peak showed weaker overheating than past tops: only two of eleven topping indicators triggered, the Pi Cycle Top did not, and MVRV topped out far below prior cycle highs. That supports a higher floor, with realized price at $53,600 and a possible bottom near $62,000 in the mildest case. Galaxy’s broader scenario range is $40,000–$46,000, with a deeper washout at $30,000–$37,000 and a shallower decline near $51,000–$54,000. Realized-price analysis from CryptoQuant also places BTC in a historical bear-market value zone, while demand metrics remain weak and suggest fewer buyers than a year ago.
