Bitcoin's Divergence From Nasdaq Is a Warning on Dollar Liquidity: Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin has declined significantly from its October 2025 all-time high while the Nasdaq 100 Index remains largely unchanged. Arthur Hayes attributes this divergence to job losses from AI adoption, which he argues will soon cause a U.S. dollar credit crunch, rising consumer defaults, and banking stress. Hayes estimates that if 20% of U.S. knowledge workers lose their jobs to AI, major consumer and mortgage credit losses could hit U.S. banks. Some experts, like Ryan McMillin, acknowledge credit quality issues but believe Hayes overstates the speed and scale of near-term disruption, noting labor markets adjust more gradually. Factors such as Fed policy, Bitcoin’s unique market cycles, and ETF flows also influence Bitcoin’s price beyond macro liquidity. Others caution that short-term divergences between Bitcoin and equities are common and do not always signal systemic risk. Gold’s outperformance amid Bitcoin’s decline is cited as evidence of growing deflationary fears. Hayes and others expect that any crisis will prompt major Fed intervention, ultimately supporting assets like Bitcoin with fixed supply over time. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $67,000, down 27% in the past month.
