Bitcoin’s “Electrical Cost” Suggests Possible Bear Market Floor Near $50,000 — Analyst
Bitcoin’s recent bearish trend has fueled talk of a drop to $25,000, but on-chain analysis argues that level is unlikely in the current cycle. The Electrical Cost model, which estimates BTC’s mining production cost, suggests Bitcoin bear markets have historically bottomed near or above that level and rarely fall below it. With Bitcoin’s current electrical cost around $48,700, support near $50,000 looks more plausible if selling continues. A break below that would likely require an extreme shock such as a severe recession or pandemic-driven panic. Separately, on-chain data shows a bearish technical setup on Binance, with very low RSI and a death cross between the 50- and 200-day EMAs. Yet exchange netflows remain negative, indicating BTC is leaving Binance and suggesting accumulation rather than pure panic selling. High open interest still leaves room for a long squeeze.
