Bond traders brace for turbulence while bitcoin and stocks remain calm
Summary
Treasury-market volatility has risen sharply, with the MOVE index climbing from about 80 to 104, while implied volatility remains subdued for bitcoin and U.S. stocks. Bitcoin’s BVIV is near its year-to-date low around 37, and the VIX is near its low around 14. The divergence comes as global bond yields rise amid higher energy prices and renewed inflation concerns; the U.S. 10-year yield briefly reached 5.2%. MOVE’s correlation with bitcoin volatility has turned notably negative, while rising yields alone have shown little consistent relationship with bitcoin returns.
