Charles Schwab prediction market partnership with Cboe to take traders away from Polymarket, Kalshi
Schwab is reportedly working with Cboe to bring prediction-style contracts into brokerage accounts, initially tied to S&P 500 levels. The idea is to let customers trade simple yes/no outcome contracts alongside stocks, ETFs, and options, making prediction markets feel like a standard retail derivatives feature rather than a crypto app. Cboe’s framework uses a traditional listed-options wrapper, cash settlement, OCC clearing, and fixed payouts, with Mini-SPX-style binary contracts as the model. This could shift the easiest prediction-market use case—clear financial outcomes with defined payouts—away from crypto-native platforms like Polymarket and toward regulated broker infrastructure. Robinhood and Interactive Brokers are already offering related event-contract access, so the contest is increasingly about distribution, trust, and liquidity. Crypto-native venues still retain advantages in broader event coverage, faster experimentation, global participation, and token-based market design.
