CLARITY Act Momentum Slows As Approval Odds Fall To 60%
The Senate’s July 4 target for advancing crypto market-structure legislation is becoming less likely because the chamber’s schedule is crowded, not because support has weakened. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn cut his estimated odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing limited floor time and competing priorities, including FISA-related business next week. Two unresolved issues are also slowing progress: lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions. The CLARITY Act is the main federal crypto market-structure bill and would divide oversight between the CFTC and SEC: commodities-style tokens would fall under the CFTC, while securities would remain with the SEC. Supporters argue the bill would reduce regulatory uncertainty and help keep crypto innovation in the U.S. The lower timeline confidence reflects scheduling bottlenecks, but overall optimism about eventual passage remains.
