Coldcard hack losses: How investigators trace stolen Bitcoin
The Coldcard hack highlights how hard it is to measure losses from self-custody wallet thefts, because there is no complete victim list like in an exchange breach. Confirmed losses depend heavily on victims publicly sharing addresses or transaction IDs. CryptoQuant reports a conservative confirmed total of 1,432 BTC, treating this as a floor. Galaxy Research says its high-confidence minimum is 1,730 BTC, with more than 450 BTC directly confirmed by victims and over 730 BTC inferred from victim reports that helped identify additional affected wallets. TRM Labs’ tracing points to a similar range and estimates about 1,816 BTC stolen across more than 5,200 addresses in four waves. All analysts expect the total to keep changing as more victims come forward. The key difference is methodology: some firms only count directly verified losses, while others include funds attributed through on-chain pattern analysis, which can raise totals but also increases uncertainty.
