Fake election polls expose a Kalshi loophole that could leave traders paying for fraud
Summary
Wedgewood admitted fabricating most of its election polls, raising questions about Kalshi contracts that use VoteHub polling averages for settlement. Kalshi’s filings say post-expiration revisions may not count, but the governing rulebook for an October contract and the treatment of fabricated data remain unclear. No evidence shows Wedgewood’s polls affected the national average or a payout. VoteHub’s forecasting model uses Kalshi prices, though its settlement average is described as a separate data product. The piece calls for Kalshi to clarify applicable rules, whether settlements have relied on corrected figures, and whether fabrication can reopen a settlement; it also urges VoteHub to document poll removals.
