Morning Minute: Robinhood CEO Bets Crypto Will Beat Sports at Prediction Markets
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said crypto-based prediction contracts are already gaining a bigger share of Robinhood’s prediction markets business, and he expects sports to become a minority of volume within a few years. He described sports as an entry point for users and liquidity, but sees broader demand beyond it. The business is growing fast: event-contract revenue rose more than 10x year over year to $156 million in Q2, and August trading volume hit 4.7 billion contracts, about 15x last year’s level. Meanwhile, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue declined. Robinhood now operates through multiple partners, including Kalshi, its own CFTC-licensed venture Rothera, and minority stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com. The shift toward crypto contracts may also reduce legal risk, since sports contracts face ongoing regulatory challenges. The note also argues that renewed crypto volatility and a stronger market backdrop are making prediction markets more active again.
