Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run
Prediction market traders expect bitcoin’s correction to continue. On Kalshi and Polymarket, the odds of BTC falling below $55,000 this year are around two-thirds, with substantial chances of a drop below $50,000 and even $40,000. Traders on Polymarket also give bitcoin only a 30% chance of outperforming gold in 2026. The bearish outlook comes as institutional demand weakens. U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs saw $2.4 billion in May outflows and another $1 billion in the first two trading days of June. K33 Research says bitcoin is also losing investor attention to AI-related stocks, where returns have been stronger and equity indexes are near highs. Capital is not leaving crypto entirely, but rotating into stablecoins like USDT and USDC, suggesting traders are holding cash and waiting for better entry points.
