Sentiment Shifts on Strategy's Bitcoin Bid as Crypto Market Selloff Deepens
Strategy, a major Bitcoin treasury firm, is under pressure as Bitcoin’s value drops sharply, with prices falling below the average purchase price of its holdings and down nearly 40% from October highs. Prediction market Myriad now gives a 36% chance the firm will need to sell some Bitcoin before year-end, up from 22% a week prior, and users see a 72% likelihood of Bitcoin falling further to $69,000. The firm's ability to continue purchasing Bitcoin depends on its market-to-net asset value (mNAV) ratio, currently at 1.08. A drop below 1 could halt new buys; markets assign a 90% chance it could fall to 0.85. Despite bearish sentiment and a prolonged stock decline—down more than 75% from the November 2024 peak—analysts believe Strategy is unlikely to sell, noting sufficient cash reserves, no imminent debt obligations, and the company’s resilient, long-term approach, led by co-founder Michael Saylor. The firm currently holds 713,502 BTC, valued at over $52 billion, and maintains a $2.25 billion cash reserve for dividend payments, supporting its commitment to holding Bitcoin through the downturn.
