SpaceX’s $194 billion share unlock exposes a major risk in Aave’s tokenized stock ambitions
About 1.31 billion SpaceX shares, valued at roughly $194.3 billion at the Oct. 20 closing price, became eligible for sale on Oct. 22 after the company moved its earnings release forward. The earlier unlock date was not reflected in LlamaRisk’s assessment of a proposed Aave listing for tokenized SpaceX shares as collateral. LlamaRisk recommends a 55% collateral factor, a 6.5% liquidation bonus and a cap of 37,000 tokens; the proposal remains subject to governance and borrowing is not yet available. Token liquidity is thin: more than 99% of trading is concentrated in one pool, with about $370,000 of depth for a 2% price move. LlamaRisk estimates the unlock could increase the tradable float substantially, but actual selling is unknown. A sharp share-price drop could trigger liquidations that would be difficult to execute amid limited on-chain liquidity and market closures.
