The Bitcoin Rally Has A Problem: Demand Is Drying Up
Bitcoin may need to reclaim $65,000 before a sustained recovery can begin, with upside from there potentially toward $72,000–$74,000. But demand conditions look weak: the 30-day combined growth of spot and perpetual futures demand has fallen to about -650,000 BTC, a rare level that has historically appeared during prolonged downturns rather than at major bottoms. Bitcoin is already down about 16% on the month, after weekly losses of 3.4% and 14% the prior week, trading near $61,000. Similar demand contractions in late 2019 and early 2022 were followed by further downside and long recovery periods. The current setup points to elevated volatility, possible continued weakness, and a likely stretch of low-participation sideways trading rather than a confirmed reversal.
