TradFi, Whales Buy Sub-$200 SOL Ahead Of ETF Decision
Solana (SOL) is potentially undervalued below $200, with on-chain data showing 76% of retail traders are net long—levels historically linked to positive price returns and reduced volatility. Backtesting by Hyblock indicates SOL’s seven-day forward returns average over +5% and risk–reward metrics improve when retail longs exceed 75%. Broad altcoin capitulation signals fear and possible accumulation, as only 10% of Binance-listed altcoins trade above their 200-day moving average, a condition often preceding recoveries. Institutional entities like Solmate and SOL Strategies have made significant recent SOL purchases at sub-$200 levels, pointing to coordinated accumulation. While SOL recently dipped below key support levels and shows compressed price action between its 50- and 100-day EMAs, whale order activity has increased—a pattern that has preceded substantial rallies. The scheduled October 16 decision on a spot SOL ETF could be a catalyst for renewed bullish momentum, especially when combined with SOL’s high staking ratio and potential index inclusion, which may drive supply constraints and help sustain higher prices.
