Treasury dealers’ net bill holdings hit a two-year high as October 30 funding pressure nears
Treasury dealers’ bill holdings have reached a two-year high, raising questions about their capacity to finance inventories ahead of October 30. Overnight dollar funding remains calm: SOFR was 3.9% on October 22, at the Fed’s reserve rate. Potential pressures include Canadian bank year-end and cash outflows from repo, though calmer bill auctions offer some relief. Bitcoin perpetual funding rose from 0.1% to 7.2% annualized in a week, indicating renewed leveraged positioning, but this does not prove crypto credit is tightening. Available crypto borrowing quotes lack comparable terms or past benchmarks, and futures basis is driven by more than interest rates. A Treasury-to-Bitcoin stress link would require sustained repo pressure alongside worsening comparable crypto financing and thinner market depth; evidence of constrained intermediaries reducing Bitcoin-market credit is still absent.
