Veteran Analyst Eyes $53,000 Bitcoin As Final Cycle Stage Begins
Bob Loukas says Bitcoin is in the final stage of its four-year cycle, but likely still needs at least one more lower low before a durable bottom forms. He views the rebound from the February lows as a normal countertrend rally inside a broader bear-cycle structure, not a new uptrend. Loukas thinks the prior cycle ended when Bitcoin broke below its 10-month moving average after peaking in October. He has begun reaccumulating, buying 10 BTC at $65,000 and holding about 58% BTC and 41% cash, but says this is not a bottom call. His key downside level is $53,000, where he would deploy the remaining cash and return to full BTC allocation. Base case: cycle low likely forms in the usual window around October or November, possibly December. He sees a short-term bounce possible, but expects Bitcoin not to reclaim the May highs unless a new cycle has already started.
