When Will Bitcoin Top? This Historical Pattern May Provide Hints
Summary
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are selling at a rate of 490,000 to 520,000 BTC per month, leading to negative net position change. This trend has historically preceded the topping out of past bull runs after 4-5 months. The presence of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has contributed to the recent LTH distribution, with GBTC monthly outflows accounting for about 20% of the total. This selling activity suggests a potential peak in the next 4-5 months, despite the recent surge in Bitcoin's price.
