Why On-Chain Metrics Miss the Full Picture of Institutional Bitcoin Buying
Bitcoin closed above $104,000 in June, achieving its highest monthly close and strongest Q2 performance on record. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of nearly $4 billion over 12 days, indicating strong institutional demand. However, traditional on-chain metrics suggest weaker buyer demand due to the nature of institutional buying, which often occurs off-chain or in wallets that remain inactive. The cumulative balance of Bitcoin in known OTC addresses has dropped to historic lows, with miner-linked balances down 18% since January. This decline signals a shift in Bitcoin movement dynamics. Despite constrained supply from the upcoming April 2024 halving, Bitcoin's price has not surged as expected, marking its weakest post-halving performance on record. Infrastructure gaps have led to alternative networks like Sui facilitating institutional access to Bitcoin DeFi strategies. Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,200 with a daily volume of approximately $25.7 billion.
