World Cup prediction markets hit $2B before kickoff as Spain and France go head to head
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has become a major prediction-market event before kickoff, with Spain and France nearly tied as favorites at about 16% implied probability on Polymarket and Kalshi. England, Portugal, and Argentina follow behind. These prices reflect tradable event contracts, not traditional forecasts, and can shift with injuries, results, and other news. Trading has already surged: Polymarket’s winner market has generated about $2 billion in volume, and Kalshi’s has topped $100 million. The tournament is a major test of whether prediction platforms can rival sportsbooks in a global sports event. The rise in sports trading is also drawing regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, while Polymarket’s main international exchange is not. Supporters argue event contracts bring transparency and oversight; critics say they are sports gambling in different form. Regulators are also watching for manipulation, insider information, and weak consumer protections as World Cup trading accelerates.
