A $202 billion US Treasury settlement hits September 30, and it could trigger a surprise move in Bitcoin
Summary
A $202 billion U.S. Treasury coupon settlement on Sept. 30 could put pressure on quarter-end repo financing, though $58.42 billion is net new face value—not a direct measure of cash drained or reserves lost. SOFR was 3.88% before settlement, below the Fed’s 3.90% reserve rate, and the New York Fed said reserves were ample and funding orderly. Any Bitcoin spillover remains unproven; evidence would require sustained repo stress alongside changes in crypto funding, market depth, leverage or spot flows. A simultaneous Bitcoin decline and SOFR rise would not establish causation.
