Why an $88 billion bank reserve drop doesn’t prove a Bitcoin liquidity squeeze – yet
Summary
Fed data show bank reserves fell $88.236 billion between Sept. 23 and Sept. 30, while the weekly average rose $17.897 billion, reflecting different measurement windows. Treasury cash and reverse repos largely explain the endpoint decline, with most reverse-repo balances held by foreign official accounts. The Sept. 30 SOFR median was 3.90%, matching the Fed’s interest rate on reserves and staying within its recent range. These figures show quarter-end balance-sheet shifts, but do not establish a dollar-funding squeeze or a direct effect on Bitcoin. A stronger claim would require sustained funding-cost pressure and evidence from Bitcoin-specific financing, liquidity or market data.
