Attention Bitcoin Bulls, China Stimulus May Have Lost Its Mojo
China has introduced significant stimulus measures, the largest since 2008, impacting Chinese stocks and global risk assets, including bitcoin. Analysts predict that this stimulus, along with potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, could drive bitcoin to $100,000. However, BCA Research cautions that the current stimulus may not produce substantial "credit impulses" as seen in previous years. The credit impulse, a key economic indicator, peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan in 2015, correlating with significant market rallies. The current peak is under 5 trillion yuan, necessitating a fivefold increase to replicate past bullish effects. Factors like the absence of a housing market boom complicate the potential for reversing the downtrend in credit impulse.
