Backing Polymarket’s primary favorites would have lost 4%, new audit finds.
Summary
Bitquery’s analysis of 273 US Senate, House and governor primaries found that Polymarket’s highest-priced candidate won 238 races, or 87%. Yet a hypothetical strategy investing $1 in each favorite at reference prices lost 4%, because costly winning shares yield small gains while losses erase the stake. Favorites priced at 90 cents or more won 177 of 182 races; those priced between 50 and 90 cents won 71% on average. The study used trades near election day, sometimes falling back to older trades, and did not fully account for spreads, slippage or fees. It excluded nine markets and covered state primaries on Polygon, not other venues. Bitquery cautioned that primary results may not generalize to better-funded general-election markets.
