Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026 ahead of cycle peak
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover from its recent pullback, retake its 2025 high of about $125,000 by late 2026, and enter a new cycle of gains. The call follows a roughly 50% drop from the October 2025 peak, partly offset by a 28% rebound over 10 days. Bernstein says stronger participation from institutions and corporate buyers is providing more downside support than in prior cycles, reducing drawdowns versus past 75%–90% declines. In its base case, Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by mid-2027 and peaks near $300,000 in 2029; in its bull case, it hits $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029. The firm keeps a long-term target of about $1 million by 2033. Bernstein’s model is based on Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and its price relative to marginal production cost. Bernstein also said a Bitcoin rebound would improve the outlook for Strategy, though it cut its MSTR price target to $350 from $450.
