Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, but 82% of the forecast rests on one bet
Summary
Bitwise’s October outlook sets a 2036 Bitcoin base target of about $1.6 million, with bear and bull cases of roughly $131,000 and $3.67 million. Its 34.3% annual return forecast rests mainly on the gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market growing from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036, with Bitcoin taking 25%. JPMorgan’s 10% return assumption is far lower and it excludes Bitcoin from its main portfolio framework, citing volatility and unstable correlations. The analysis highlights that Bitwise’s target depends on both substantial market growth and increased Bitcoin share; institutional allocations, market expansion and Bitcoin’s share are key tests of the thesis.
