Bitcoin options carried a far smaller election premium than in 2024
Block Scholes found Bitcoin options priced only a small increase in forward volatility for the 2026 US midterm election window: 2.8 and 0.1 volatility points above later intervals, versus 14.4 and 10.8 points before the 2024 presidential election. The comparison does not isolate election risk or predict Bitcoin’s direction. Changes in Kalshi’s Democratic Senate-control odds had almost no correlation with daily Bitcoin returns through October 26. Bitcoin was near $80,069 on October 29, below a previously identified $81,000–$82,500 holder acquisition-price zone. The report says a sustained recovery would require lasting buying and should be assessed separately from election expectations and the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28 after a September hike.
