Bitcoin option buyers face a Fed-week premium that can fade after the decision
Summary
Bitcoin’s short-term options priced in more volatility ahead of central-bank decisions. Laevitas reported seven-day at-the-money implied volatility of 36.5%, near the 30-day reading of 37%, and a 9.2-point gap between implied and realized volatility. The 30-day put skew was near its historical median, suggesting downside protection was priced normally. The premium reflects a busy calendar—including Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions, economic data and Deribit expiry—not the Fed alone. If markets remain calm, implied volatility may fall and event-focused option buyers could lose value; large moves or continued uncertainty could sustain the premium.
