Bitcoin Crash Could Deepen to $38K, Say Analysts—Here's Why
Stifel analysts predict Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 in the coming months, a potential 42% drop from current levels, drawing on historical “super-bear” drawdowns ranging from 76% to 93%. They forecast a 70% decline as a possible worst-case scenario. The recent downturn is attributed to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy, specifically its data-dependent approach and reluctance to inflate the economy amid tariff-driven uncertainty. The nomination of Kevin Warsh—an inflation hawk—as a potential Fed chair successor further spurred the selloff. Analysts observe a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market behavior, noting it no longer responds positively to a weaker dollar or increased dollar liquidity, undermining its status as a fiat hedge. Additionally, Bitcoin’s close correlation with tech stocks has amplified its decline, as both face pressure from higher inflation and credit stress linked to large AI investments. Stifel warns the widening gap between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index signals a potentially ominous outlook for tech equities as well.
