Bitcoin eyes gains as macro data makes US recession 2025 'base case'
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to benefit as a US recession becomes likely. Analysis indicates that the US economy will suffer due to trade tariffs and rising inflation. Recent macroeconomic data shows GDP fell below expectations, leading to a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve, which must choose between controlling inflation or unemployment. The Fed faces a potential recession and stagflation, with rising odds of a recession according to prediction service Kalshi. Market expectations suggest a 0.25% interest rate cut may occur at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, while the May meeting has low odds for a cut. Crypto traders are closely monitoring these developments, anticipating that a recession could prompt the Fed to adjust its policies, potentially leading to increased market liquidity and risk-taking.
