Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed—If the Fed Helps, Says Grayscale
Grayscale argues Bitcoin’s bear market may already be over if the Federal Reserve does not raise rates. It rejects the “four-year cycle” thesis, which says Bitcoin should keep falling after the halving and could bottom around September or October, possibly near $50,000. Instead, Grayscale says Bitcoin now trades more like gold or a rate-sensitive tech asset, so macro conditions matter more than halving cycles. Past bear markets have lined up with slowing growth and rising real interest rates, and the current one also reflects shifting Fed expectations. If the Fed skips hikes and growth stays resilient, Bitcoin may have already bottomed. A potential catalyst is the Clarity Act, which could improve crypto market structure and support prices. Bitcoin has recently rebounded from early-July lows, with strong ETF inflows, but still remains in a fragile trend ahead of the Fed’s next decision.
