Bitcoin must climb 92% to rescue last year’s $120K buyers and the escape routes begin at $72K
A $1,000 Bitcoin buy at the July 2025 breakout above $120,000 is now worth about $520, implying a 47.98% loss and needing a 92.2% rebound to recover. Bitcoin is around $64,073, far below its July 2025 record of $123,165 and later peak of $126,198. The nearest recovery hurdles are Glassnode’s cost-basis levels near $72,200 and $76,600, where many recent holders could sell as they return to breakeven. Bitcoin has spent months below both levels, and demand so far has lacked broad conviction. Glassnode says buying has improved from June lows, but the bottom is still not confirmed. A move back above $100,000 would still leave the anniversary buyer deeply underwater. Downside risk remains possible near $53,000, so the first test is whether buyers can absorb selling around the two lower cost bases.
