Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Struggle to Stay in Profit Despite ‘Euphoria’
Bitcoin may be entering its final expansion toward a cycle blow-off top, based on on-chain indicators. CryptoQuant data highlights that the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) ratio has reached +0.52, a level historically marking the transition from optimism to euphoria, similar to peaks in 2017 and 2021. Roughly 97% of circulating Bitcoin supply is now in profit, indicating strong confidence but suggesting limited further upside unless there’s market consolidation. Short-term holders (STHs)—those holding for up to 155 days—now account for a record 44% of Bitcoin's realized cap, showing that newer investors are absorbing supply from profit-taking long-term holders. This phase typically signals the final expansion of a bull market. However, current market dynamics differ due to institutional investment, ETF inflows, and expanding stablecoin liquidity, which are absorbing selling pressure and creating a more stable market euphoria. A decline in STH share would signal a shift back to accumulation by long-term holders. Bitcoin’s price is currently fluctuating around the STH cost basis ($112,500), with this level acting as a key support or resistance during market swings.
