Bitcoin simulations show why a return to $126,000 would not last
Summary
A CryptoSlate simulation of 100,000 Bitcoin price paths found a 50.4% chance of closing above the $126,198 record at least once within a year, but only a 34.8% chance of finishing the year above it. Many paths that reclaimed the record later fell below it, and breakouts often involved substantial drawdowns. Results varied widely across modeling assumptions, so the precise probabilities are uncertain. Historical recoveries also often saw renewed declines. The analysis argues that reaching a record, holding above it, and ending an investment horizon above it are distinct tests; its one-year forecast did not outperform a simple baseline in a held-out evaluation.
