Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks
Summary
Glassnode data shows Bitcoin matched the S&P 500 in outperformance frequency, beating it in 50% of US trading sessions over the latest rolling 90-session period. This ends a stretch dating back to March 2025 in which Bitcoin underperformed more often than it outperformed. Its average session gains were also slightly higher than the index’s. Separately, historical data cited by Capriole Investments indicates the S&P 500 averaged gains of 10.7% over three months after Democratic midterm sweeps under Republican presidents, based on seven cases since 1922. Bitcoin’s 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 stood at 0.63, after turning markedly positive since August.
