Bitcoin’s $224K ‘fair value’ may emerge if sovereign debt fears deepen: Bitwise
Bitwise says Bitcoin could gain more value if sovereign debt concerns worsen. Rising global borrowing, stressed bond markets, and heavy government refinancing needs may strengthen BTC’s appeal as a hedge against macro risk. A Greg Foss model cited by Bitwise gives Bitcoin a theoretical fair value near $224,000 if it is broadly adopted as protection against sovereign default risk. The report highlights Japan as a key pressure point: government debt is around 230% of GDP, long-term yields are rising, and domestic bonds are becoming more attractive relative to foreign debt holdings. U.S. long-term yields and sovereign risk premiums have also climbed sharply. Bitwise says a severe bond-market shock could ultimately benefit Bitcoin if central banks respond with liquidity support, but near term BTC may stay range-bound because real yields remain high. Falling real rates would improve the macro backdrop.
