Bitcoin’s AI-driven rally faces a hidden danger if the machines get richer but workers don’t
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that several AI-driven economic outcomes could ultimately increase Bitcoin demand, through scarcity, monetary expansion or institutional adoption. A BIS working paper describes a less favorable path: automation and heavy investment reduce consumption’s share of output, weakening incentives for further innovation and lowering long-run growth. Its model estimates consumption’s share falls from 69% to 62.1% and sustainable growth from 2% to 1.6%, while noting results depend on assumptions. The piece connects this scenario to weaker wages, uneven spending, AI-related imports and market volatility, but stresses the BIS paper does not assess Bitcoin. AI’s net effect on Bitcoin remains uncertain and depends on how productivity gains, income and wealth are distributed, alongside rates and ETF demand.
