AI may be keeping Bitcoin’s biggest macro headwind alive after the Fed stops hiking
AI infrastructure spending may keep long-term Treasury yields and real rates elevated by drawing heavily on bond and private-credit markets, even after the Fed stops raising short-term rates. Fed meeting minutes cited AI-related borrowing as one contributor to rising term premiums, though they did not quantify its impact and also named other factors. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which offers no contractual income. The BIS estimates major technology firms will spend over $1 trillion on AI in 2025-26 and warns that debt-financed investment could create vulnerabilities if returns disappoint. A possible AI bust and policy liquidity response could later support Bitcoin, but that scenario is speculative. The key indicators for crypto investors are long-term yields, term premiums and Bitcoin demand amid high real rates.
