Bitcoin’s bottom needs long-term holders to stop losing $280M a day
Bitcoin rebounded from $58,300 to $64,400 and then eased to $62,700, but still trades below Glassnode’s key cycle anchors: the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200 and the True Market Mean near $76,600. Glassnode says Bitcoin remains in a late-stage bottoming process, marked by long-term holders selling at a loss; this capitulation now makes up 43% of realized value, up from 15% in February, and recently reached nearly $280 million a day. Spot ETF flows have improved but remain net negative, with 30-day average inflows around $88.9 million a day and volume far below prior peaks. Derivatives are less bearish, though options still price downside protection. Fed June minutes showed unanimous support for holding rates and a more cautious stance on inflation, with officials citing tariffs, supply disruptions, and AI-driven demand as risks. A durable recovery likely needs lower capitulation, neutral ETF flows, and stronger volume.
