Bitcoin rally hinges on whether the Fed buys into the weak jobs report after bad miss
June payrolls came in far weaker than expected, with 57,000 jobs added versus 110,000 forecast, plus 74,000 in downward revisions to prior months. Unemployment stayed low at 4.2% and wages rose 3.5% year over year, while labor-force participation fell to 61.5%, making the report mixed rather than clearly recessionary. Traders treated the data as a possible catalyst for Bitcoin because softer growth can raise rate-cut expectations and support liquidity, but a strong labor market and sticky inflation still give the Fed room to stay cautious. Analysts are split on whether the move is bullish or a trap: weaker data may prompt brief relief, but if the Fed dismisses it, real yields could stay high and crypto could fade. Bitcoin already broke above $60,000-$61,000, with $65,000 seen as the next test and $75,000 possible if momentum holds. Thin holiday trading could amplify moves in either direction.
