Bitcoin supply metric prints first 'buy' signal since late 2022 as bear market continues
Bitcoin has flashed a new bear-market bottom signal, with the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio returning to a negative zone for the first time in nearly four years. The model printed a BUY signal in late June and early July, the first since November 2022, which marked the prior cycle’s bottom. This does not confirm a macro bottom, but it typically appears near cyclical lows. Confirmation would require the ratio staying above zero while price rises. Another missing piece is a larger share of BTC supply held at a loss; that measure has not yet reached prior bear-market extremes, though it may do so within two months. Overall, the signals suggest seller exhaustion and a possible approaching end to the bear phase, but BTC could still move lower before demand returns.
