Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Broken: VanEck
VanEck issues a cautious near-term outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, citing the breakdown of the typical four-year Bitcoin cycle due to increased institutional involvement, ETFs, and macroeconomic factors. Internal views at the firm differ, with some analysts more optimistic about Bitcoin's immediate prospects, but there is agreement on increased portfolio allocation to Bitcoin and derivatives for strategic purposes. In contrast, VanEck holds a clear risk-on stance for traditional assets like AI stocks—deemed attractive after a correction—and gold, which is supported by strong central bank demand. Gold is considered a stable allocation for capital preservation, with pullbacks seen as buying opportunities, though returns are expected to favor dynamic exposure management. Both gold and Bitcoin could benefit further if concerns rise over U.S. Federal Reserve independence, as this may drive diversification into non-sovereign assets.
