Buy Bitcoin Before Jackson Hole—Or Regret It Forever, Says Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes argues in “Quid Pro Stablecoin” that the U.S. interest in bank-issued stablecoins is aimed at enhancing Treasury liquidity rather than promoting financial freedom. He claims that eight major banks hold $6.8 trillion in deposits that can be converted into stablecoins, which would enable significant Treasury bill purchases. Hayes suggests that if Congress limits the Federal Reserve's ability to pay interest on reserves, an additional $3.3 trillion could be freed for Treasury investments, totaling $10.1 trillion in potential liquidity for government debt. He highlights the GENIUS Act as crucial for ensuring banks dominate the stablecoin market, potentially increasing their market capitalization by over 180%. Despite his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, Hayes warns of a temporary liquidity drain that could lower Bitcoin prices to the mid-$90,000s before the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference. He advises against waiting for Federal Reserve signals and encourages investing in Bitcoin and JPMorgan, predicting significant price increases. Bitcoin was trading at $109,449 at the time of writing.
